In advance: Make fondant paper tears. Combine 4 oz. white fondant with 1/4 teaspoon Gum-Tex. Roll out fondant 1/8 in. thick and cut 8 triangles 1 1/2 in. wide in various lengths from 2 to 2 1/2 in. Let dry 48 hours in medium and large flower formers dusted with cornstarch.
Also in advance: Make fondant bear. Tint 4 oz . fondant brown, 1/8 oz. light brown and 1/2 oz. orange. Use brown fondant to make a 1 3/4 in. ball for torso and a 1 1/2 in. ball for head. Shape and attach together with damp brush.
Roll and attach 1 x 1/2 in. logs for arms, 1/2 in. flattened balls for ears. For muzzle, roll out light brown fondant 1/8 in. thick; cut 1/2 x 3/4 in. oval and attach. Using buttercream icing and tip 1, pipe dot eyes, pipe-in nose and string mouth. Using orange fondant, shape a 1/2 in. wide x 3/4 in. high cone for hat; attach. Pipe tip 1 pull-out fringe.
Bake and cool cake. Trim 1/2 in. off top of cupcake. Ice bottom section smooth; position top section and use spatula to ice with swirl effect.
Tint 8 oz. fondant blue; roll out 1/8 in. thick. Cut 16 strips, 3 1/2 in. long using Cutter/Embosser with 2 zigzag wheels and 1/4 in. spacer; attach to bottom section sides with dots of icing.
Attach confetti sprinkles. Pipe tip 4 message. Position bear and fondant paper tears.